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Debate on the Address

My Lords, I want to talk about Iraq and Iran and the relationship between the two countries. Before doing that, I draw the House’s attention to my entry in the Register of Members’ Interests as a director of two companies involved in trading with both those countries. I hope that the House will not think it wrong of me to talk about and draw on my experience of dealing with that region. Like several noble Lords, I recently had the opportunity to observe and listen to former President Khatami of Iran. As I listened to him, I became more and more surprised that this was the man whose regime was dubbed ““the axis of evil””. This was the president of Iran who was the first head of state to condemn the terrorist actions on 9/11, which he condemned as ““an act of nihilism”” that was totally inconsistent with Islam. It was this president who also gave practical help and strong support to the American invasion of both Iraq and Afghanistan, in exchange for which he received continuing sanctions against his country and diplomatic isolation. From a western point of view since, the situation in Iran has become much worse with a much more extreme Government in power, but the isolation of Iran and the economic difficulties have contributed to the ascent to power of the hardliners. Like the noble Baroness, Lady Symons, I welcome what the Prime Minister said the other day about talking to both Iran and Syria about Iraq, and trying to enlist their help. However, I am not too sure that the Prime Minister's tone in his statement was quite right. He demanded a dialogue; he wanted a dialogue while simultaneously warning those countries of the consequences if they did not participate. There is some suspicion that his words may have been altered slightly at the request of the United States. The United States has also expressed interest in talks, but to many people it appears to have laid down as conditions for the talks words and terms which most people would have thought were more appropriate in the conclusion of the talks. From an Iranian point of view, the invitation to talks may prove less than overwhelming. When the West and the United States were in a strong position in Iraq, Iran was told to keep well out of Iraq. It was told not to participate in the reconstruction of the country. But now that the West has problems, Iran is asked to come in and is unlikely to want to be the deus ex machine to solve America's problems. There is also a danger that the West may overestimate what the Iranians can do in Iraq. Iran is already close to Iraq through the Dawa party, the Sciri party, and the Prime Minister of Iraq is close to Iran—so close that the Americans have warned the Iraqi Government on occasions not to get too close to their neighbour. We should remember that Iran shares the original objectives of the United States and Britain in Iraq. Iran wants Iraq kept as one country. It has supported a secular government; it has supported a Sunni as president because it wants to keep the country as one country. It is not often reported in this country that the supreme ruler Khamenei—not often thought of as a moderate—has repeatedly urged the Shias not to retaliate against acts of violence by the Sunnis. It is not often reported in this country that the Iranians actually organised polling stations and ballots for the elections in Iraq. Looking at the issue more widely, diplomatically Iran has never been in so strong a position as it is today. Its two main enemies have been removed as a result of the war. More profoundly, the whole balance in the Middle East between Shia and Sunni hasbeen dramatically altered. The emergence of a Shia crescent from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon to Iran and Iraq has caused something between unease and panic in the moderate Arab countries—Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. The issue that is increasingly discussed is how to prevent Iran filling the power vacuum. Dr Kissinger and Jeremy Greenstock have talked about building up structures around these moderate Arab states. These were the states that initially supported Israeli action against the Lebanon until they were forced into a diplomatic retreat by public opinion in their own countries. Whatever the merits of this idea of getting these countries all together, there is room for scepticism at the extent to which they themselves would act as opposed to talk cohesively. But a restarted peace process, as Dr Kissinger pointed out, would require close co-operation among the moderate Arab states, and involve the EU and United States as well. If a solution to the Palestinian problem were ever arrived at, that would mean that Iran had much less opportunity for mischief. Under Secretary Burns at the Pentagon the other day criticised Iran because it had ambitions to be a regional power. Surely it is important to keep in touch with reality. Iran already is a very important power in the region. It is a significant oil producer, a country with a population of 60 million people—soon to be 100 million people. It is also a country with its own security concerns, having lost something like 500,000 people in a war within living memory. Of course there is legitimate and real concern about what President Ahmadinejad has said about Israel. I suspect that those remarks were more aimed at enhancing Iran’s influence among the Arab states—they certainly do not resonate so well in Iran itself. It has been made clear on several occasions that were there to be a Middle East settlement that was acceptable to the Palestinian people, Iran would not, as President Khatami put it, be more Catholic than the Pope, but would accept what the Palestinian people had decided. Henry Kissinger in an interesting article on Sunday said: "““Iran needs to be encouraged to act as a nation, not a cause””. " That is quite right but treating Iran as a pariah will not encourage Iran in that direction. Many of the actions of the West in recent years have seemed designed to encourage the revolutionary fervour of people like President Ahmadinejad. There is no doubt that the Iranian public are tired of the Government acting as a revolutionary agent rather than one to bring an increased economic prosperity, which is what they desperately want. I welcome the fact that the Government want talks with Iran, but they must not be just about Iraq and the nuclear issue. They must be about wider issues: Iran’s entry into the WTO and its place in an integrated economic world. The Government must recognise Iran as a respected, but not dominant, power in the region. There are no guarantees, but an approach on that basis is more likely to produce an Iran that is less of a revolutionary agent and more of a responsible regional power, which is what we want.