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Security of Supply

Strangely enough, that is a question that I have asked myself, because I have been trotting out that line since last summer, and I decided that, in view of this important debate, I ought to look a bit more closely into the matter. I am not sure about Centrica, because it is not involved in the North sea, but I found that every credible analysis published said that North sea gas would decline, and that we would move from being a net exporter to a net importer between 2005 and 2007. Wood Mackenzie, in its August 2001 multi-client report entitled ““Running Short of Gas: The Outlook for UK and Irish Gas Markets””—which, I am told, is very authoritative—said:"““It is probable that the UK will become a net importer of gas in either 2005 or 2006.””" Others put it at between 2006 and 2007. On Tuesday, I was with a number of energy suppliers, who themselves admitted that this was the case. I do not know of anyone who did not have a misconception of how quickly North sea gas would be reduced. However, the hon. Gentleman has asked a valid question, and I asked it myself because I wanted to explore it at that level of analysis.