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Middle East and North Africa

My Lords, I know that many noble Lords take a close interest in the Middle East and north Africa. This was one reason—there are now, of course, many others—why the Government tabled a debate on recent developments in the region. We are living through and debating momentous times where much is changing. It is always difficult to achieve an effective focus in a debate when matters are not only far from settled but may change even during the course of what we are saying today. Nevertheless, I hope your Lordships will agree that, particularly in this Chamber, we have a role and a duty to stand back a little from the tumultuous broadcasts and the overload of news and information and try to make some sense of the jigsaw of the region on which we are focusing today. I suggest that we focus in particular on the interests of the United Kingdom in this heavily interdependent and highly globalised world. If I may start with a generality, although obviously there are many details to come, we want to see a Middle East that is stable and outward facing, a region where the pace of growth and development matches the demands of a changing world and whose young and rapidly growing population is enabled, through education and reform, to participate freely and fully in economic and political life. We must never forget that half the population of almost the entire region is under 25. This is an important factor for the people of the region, and all the developments there are vital for our own future prosperity, security and national interest. I turn to events in Egypt this morning and overnight. President Mubarak has indeed devolved powers, according to his statement, but it appears that, as he proposes things, every step in the transition to a new pattern requires his authorisation. Meanwhile, we have reports this morning that the protests are growing much stronger, there are more people in the centre of Cairo and the protests in other cities around the country are also growing. The army is the factor in the middle of all this and it faces grim options, which it appears to be debating now. One is the obvious one, that it could mount a military coup; we have seen that sort of thing in other countries. Another is that it could hope to control the crowds, who are far from appeased by what President Mubarak has announced. The third, and the one that we must pray against, is that there is the risk of a clash and that massive numbers of people seek to attack key institutions and places, such as the Parliament and the palace, that are heavily guarded. I hardly need to suggest to your Lordships what the result of that might be. We can make no predictions; not the closest expert, not the bravest reporter—the coverage has been conducted by some very brave people—can do that. All I can say is that in about an hour the people of Cairo will come out from their Friday prayers on to the streets, and we will have to see how matters develop from there. As to the immediate concern that we all have for British nationals and tourists, the travel advice that the Foreign and Commonwealth Office has provided still stands: in the big cities, as well as in Luxor and Alexandria, one should travel only if it is absolutely essential. The resorts remain calm and people are travelling to them. Obviously, the advice is to check with one’s tour operator, and there are constant updates and daily, even hourly, reports to Ministers. If things change there will be an adjustment but, so far, calmness prevails. That is the immediate report that I wanted to give your Lordships on Egypt. We have some more deliberative ideas to exchange, and I am looking forward to hearing many of them in the debate. Events in Egypt, as well as in Tunisia and to some extent in other countries, which we will come to, have highlighted long-term grievances in all these places. They have shown that if these frustrations are not sensibly and calmly addressed they may turn into volatility and instability at amazing speed, with huge consequences across the whole region. Economic grievances, such as food costs, have been part of citizens’ discontent in Tunisia and particularly in Egypt, the two countries where the movement has been most visible so far. Political and social frustrations rather than religious or ideological factors have played a significant part. People have been calling for an end to corruption, space for political participation, and equal access to justice and law. We are reminded by these events of the importance of underpinning economic development with sound political reform. The age of informational technology has played its part. Admittedly, in Egypt the internet and mobiles were cut off at a certain point, but not before huge mobilisation had been achieved through e-enabled electronic media. All this means that the pattern of protest formation gets vastly speeded up and the organisation of protest greatly empowered. We will recognise in this debate that each of the countries in the region that we are looking at faces quite different pressures. The UN said in the latest of its Arab Human Development Reports, which have been produced each year since 2002, that there are underlying issues of weak governance and limited political, economic and social participation right across the region. These vary enormously from country to country. The Government’s view is that reform must be a home-grown process. Leadership must come from within the countries. The international community, which includes us, should play a positive role in helping to foster reform. This is not about imposing western democratic models and prescribing outcomes and templates, but about promoting the building blocks of more open societies in the regions. It is about working in partnership with the region, taking into account the unique situation in each country. My right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary has been travelling for the past few days. He went first to Tunisia on Tuesday where he pledged the UK’s support for the democratic aspirations of the people of Tunis and their desire for greater economic development and a more open, political system. He announced the UK’s Arab Partnership long-term strategic initiative. That is supported by a new £5 million Arab Partnership Fund to help Governments with the building blocks of more open societies. Through it, we will offer support in areas of UK expertise and reputation: the rule of law, access to justice, freedom of expression, democratic institutions and civil society. That is just one part of broader UK efforts on these issues. It will supplement the already extensive work of DfID in the region, as well as other global Foreign Office programme spending which the Foreign Secretary announced on 1 February. This includes £24 million for FCO programmes to promote stable, open economies to help countries develop, and £58.5 million for the promotion of values, human rights and British diplomatic influence through strengthened bilateral relations. As my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary said in Tunisia at the beginning of this week, this is a time of great opportunity for the Middle East. He praised the courage, dignity and sacrifice of ordinary Tunisians in pursuit of universal freedoms that we often take for granted here. As he highlighted, we are witnessing a remarkable transition in Tunisia. The Government have made encouraging progress in responding to the aspirations of the people. Now, of course, they must ensure that change is swift, comprehensive and irreversible. My right honourable friend also, as the House will know, visited Jordan, the Yemen and Bahrain. I shall have one or two comments to make on those in a moment. It is for the Egyptian people to determine the leadership of their country and secure—if they can, against the outline of what I have already described to your Lordships—the rapid, orderly transition to a broad-based government with real, visible and meaningful change. It needs to start, if possible, now. The Prime Minister also made this clear in his Statement to Parliament on 7 February, which I repeated to your Lordships. He commended the European Council Declaration on Egypt and the Region of 4 February, which stressed that the transition we are calling for should involve the building blocks of free and open societies and democratic institutions, such as the freedom of assembly, the rule of law, freedom of speech and free and fair elections. In our contacts with partners in the United States, Europe and the wider region, we have discussed how we can help Egypt through these perilous times and its transition. We welcome the European Council’s agreement to a new partnership involving more effective support to countries such as Egypt. The scale of European Union support should depend on the extent to which the Egyptian Government are prepared to stand by the commitments that they have already made and take further measures towards meaningful political reform. Frankly, however, in the light of the news now coming in, we will have to be realistic and wait to see how events turn out. I turn briefly to some of the broader implications for the region, and the central issue, to my mind, of the United Kingdom’s interests in the outcomes in the area. First, the Middle East peace process is a concern that many of your Lordships have at the forefront of their minds. My right honourable friend is putting strongly to the Israeli Government and to Washington the point that, unless decisive leadership is shown and bold decisions taken, the two-state solution in the Middle East will get more difficult and may become impossible within a few years as facts on the ground change. That would leave us with decades of potential conflict and even deeper difficulties in the Middle East. Clearly, this is not in the interests of the Israelis themselves, or those of the Palestinians or the wider region. It is not in the UK’s interests either. We want to see stable, prosperous Middle East development with a sovereign and viable Palestinian state living in peace alongside a secure Israel at the heart of it. At this moment, the Israelis are of course wondering about the border between Gaza and Egypt, and whether it stays protected. It appears to do so at the moment. They are also worrying about their peace agreement with Egypt, which has been part of their policy in the past. All of these things are now up for revision and are no doubt being re-examined at this moment. Let me deal with further implications. First, it is often overlooked that this is not just a western problem. There is an eastern dimension to the whole of what is happening in the Middle East. Chinese influence and investment are everywhere. Chinese warships are in the Mediterranean for the first time in several hundred years. The influence of the rising powers of Asia on the Middle East is heavy and growing. Exports from the Middle East—we are looking immediately more at the oil-producing countries to the east of the region—are increasingly going to the east. Sixty-six per cent of all oil production from Saudi Arabia goes eastwards. A large proportion of China’s fossil fuel imports come from this region. This cannot be brushed aside; it is a decisive element in the unfolding pattern of Middle East reform. As far as we are concerned, there are some energy implications, to which we should not be blind. Egypt itself is not a major energy producer but it has some oil and quite a lot of gas, which it exports through the Arab peace pipeline to Jordan, Syria and Israel. Extraordinarily—perhaps this is often overlooked—Israel relies on Egypt for between 30 per cent and 40 per cent of its daily gas supplies. The continuation of that pipeline is an extremely important element in the situation. All over the region new gas pipelines are being developed, such as the so-called Islamic gas pipeline between Iran, Iraq and Syria. We have to understand that a new pattern of energy transportation and production is emerging in the area. I will say a little on troubles to the south of Egypt, which should not be ignored. The piracy in the Gulf of Aden and to the south of Somalia gets worse by the day. My right honourable and honourable friends and other Governments are working harder and harder to create a strong focus to deal with what is now a dangerous and threatening problem for world trade and transportation and security. The countries either side of Egypt and Tunisia and those mentioned by my right honourable friend are all watching this matter closely. Algeria is an area where there could be dangers; it is a vast energy producer and troubles there would have a direct effect on our security and welfare. My right honourable friend visited President Saleh in Yemen and discussed the situation with him. He visited Jordan and talked to the King. He did not have a chance to visit Lebanon this time. He was in Syria two weeks ago. Lebanon’s situation is different. In a very delicate and fragile situation the new Prime Minister, Mr Makati, seeks to form a new Government that somehow has the backing of the former 14 March and 8 March alliances, Hezbollah and the Maronite, Christian and Sunni elements. It is a very difficult situation and one with which we should sympathise during these struggles to stabilise. I could say more on Sudan, where good things happened in recent days. We welcome the result of the referendum on south Sudan and the statement that the Government of Sudan will respect the choice of the people and the commitments of the Sudanese leaders in the south. This has so far been a major success story for British policy and that of other countries, including the United States, in an area where we have provided a colossal amount of aid. We make an annual development payment to Sudan of £140 million. We have a very strong team in Juba. Our staff there have performed quite brilliantly. That is all I want to say on Sudan at the moment for simple time limitation reasons. Part of the reason that we need to work in partnership with the region is to protect our own vital interests. This is not just a broad concern; this is to do with our national interests. We want to promote an environment in which the UK’s trade and investment can flourish, including through shared standards and a proper level playing field for business, and encourage economic participation by all members of society. There is an opportunity, as my right honourable friend has emphasised, for countries in the region to tackle problems of corruption and transparency in the way that we have been calling for over many years, and to lay the foundations for balanced democratic development, which will provide them with their own agenda, respect and freedoms. They will have the powers not to be pushed around by the influences of Iran and the outside pressures that they sometimes resent, and to have their own dignity and freedom. We want to promote opportunity through education and learning and the growth in the activity and capacity of civil society. Our education system, which is highly respected in the region, stands to gain significantly as education in the region opens up. We want to promote fairness through the spread of universal rights and freedoms, which will make countries in the region more reliable and less fragile trading partners for us. Promotion of these reforms is firmly in our national interest. In all of this, we must aim for what is practical, realistic and achievable, and work with international partners, including the European Union, the United States, the G8, the G20, the broader Middle East and north African peace process and international financial institutions. We need to ensure that we complement, rather than compete with, all these existing efforts. In doing so, we will respect the cultural differences of societies where these exist within a framework of international rights. I have spoken at perhaps more length than I intended in opening this debate but I thought your Lordships would like to know how we see the very latest situation, and on what we should now focus to ensure our interests and the stability and peace of a dangerous and turbulent region. I beg to move.