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Debate on the Address

My Lords, I welcome the noble Baroness, Lady Taylor of Bolton, to her new responsibilities. I look forward to getting to know her and to working with her. I hope that she will not take it amiss though if I say how sad and distressed I am that the noble Lord, Lord Drayson, has left us. He was an outstanding Minister and acknowledged as such on all sides of the House. I found him extraordinarily helpful to work with and his reputation is wide and respected in all parts of the defence community outside. It is a surprise that he has gone. One so often hears of Ministers who have been very hard pressed—in his case as a part-time Minister in defence, not as a full-time Minister—who go to have more time with their families. For a Minister to say that he wishes to have more time with his racing cars is a novel approach. But I hope that he gets many chequered flags. He certainly deserves them for all the work that he did in his job in the Ministry of Defence. A couple of weeks ago, in a ““Sky News”” interview, the Chief of the Defence Staff said that while the military is an essential element in bringing Afghanistan to its rightful place in the 21st century, it was an enormous project that will take decades and ultimately can only solved politically. In June, our new ambassador in Kabul, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, said, "““Britain could be heavily involved in Afghanistan for decades””." He called it, "““a marathon, not a sprint””." So we have two highly respected and well informed senior officials outlining a long-term overseas commitment for the Armed Forces. Their views no doubt reflect the private position of the Government though, perhaps understandably, I have not heard a Minister put it in quite such stark terms. We are long past Dr Reid’s statement in early 2006 when, as Defence Secretary, he said that he would be, "““perfectly happy to leave [Afghanistan] in three years without firing one shot””." To be fair and accurate, Dr Reid also said at the time that the deployment of UK forces would be a complex and dangerous mission. Events have proved him right on that. Our force levels in Afghanistan are approaching double those originally committed in 2006. So we must plan to be heavily involved, on the ground and in the air, in expeditionary warfare, a long way from home and for years. At current levels of expenditure our forces have been sorely stretched. The drawdown in Iraq is most welcome but it will not do that much to ease the overall problem for personnel, especially if we commit further troops into Afghanistan. We have now learnt the outcome of the Comprehensive Spending Review. Ministers have made much of the further 1.5 per cent real increase in the defence budget over the coming three years. It is welcome, certainly, but is it enough to meet expeditionary commitments stretching into the distant future? And is that the whole story? In his Statement about retaining a nuclear deterrent capability, the Prime Minister said: "““As before, we will ensure that the investment required will not be at the expense of the conventional capabilities that our armed forces need””.—[Official Report, Commons, 4/12/06; col. 23.]" Indeed, in answer to my question to the noble Baroness, Lady Amos, on the same Statement, she replied: "““What I said in the Statement and in response to questions was that this would have no impact on our conventional capability. That is the commitment which has been made””.—[Official Report, 4/12/06; Col. 987.]" In spite of that, it was expecting too much that deterrent expenditure would be ring-fenced. It has now been subsumed in the CSR defence allocation. Moreover, there seems to be a tendency for the Treasury to expect some urgent operational requirements to be met from within the defence budget allocation, not as a charge on the contingency fund that meets the operation costs of our forces in theatre. The £2.2 billion that we learnt today has been spent on urgent operational requirements in order to support our troops on operations is another example of defence underfunding in the past. Far from there being no impact on our conventional capability, it seems that for such requirements the Armed Forces are to get, relatively, no more, and in real terms probably less, as expenditure on the deterrent grows. By all accounts the budget is well short of planned requirements. Something must give. The increasing use of PFI to meet defence requirements, the constraint of contracts already entered into with industry that cannot be broken without much nugatory expense and other fixed costs such as pay-in pensions mean that there is considerably less scope to trim expenditure to fit a budget than was true in the past; so much so that, unless further funds are made available, some major project in the future equipment programme will have to be seriously delayed or even abandoned. Salami-slicing—the default tactic in ““budget lite”” situations—is unlikely to yield enough. If the axe is to fall on a major programme and the deterrent is to continue, as I believe it should, what should it be? I fear the future carrier programme must be most at risk. If we are to be largely committed in Afghanistan for decades, and so unlikely—indeed, unable—to be much deeper embroiled elsewhere, there are no tasks for a strike carrier force that cannot be better mounted from bases in or around Afghanistan. We needed our carriers when Argentina invaded the Falklands, but now there is a main base airfield at Mount Pleasant. Even if the Argentinians, seeing us so stretched elsewhere, were to be tempted to reinvade the Falklands, their task would be infinitely more difficult for them than it was in 1982 even if we no longer had a carrier. Elsewhere in the world, with any possibility of major conflict within carrier reach, we would be in partnership with the United States and our carrier capability might be more desirable but not necessarily essential. On a more detailed level, I fear that the gap of eight to 10 years between the withdrawal of the Sea Harriers in 2006 and getting the carriers and Joint Strike Fighter into service will face the Fleet Air Arm with an almost impossible problem of recruiting, training and retaining enough fast-jet pilots and engineers and developing their essential leadership and other expertise on time. Already at RAF Cottesmore, where the remaining Sea Harrier naval pilots and ratings are based, there are shortfalls in skills, which are being met by Royal Air Force personnel. The impact on the defence industry, particularly shipbuilding, cannot be overlooked, but one does not need four acres of open deck to operate UAVs, which might provide a more realistic and affordable long-term capability for maritime aviation. The pressures on recruiting and retention across the three services, particularly in certain key activities, mean that the first call on additional funds should be people-related, including steps to improve harmony, accommodation, pay and compensation. Much has been said recently about the military covenant, a vital element in sustaining the loyalty and commitment of our fighting forces. Time does not allow me to develop my misgivings about the way the Government are failing to honour that covenant. Indeed, defence did not figure in the gracious speech. However, the covenant should be with not only the Government but the nation as a whole. I have been struck by how much support the United States armed forces and veterans enjoy from their public and private business. It is almost certain that a US service man or woman, on producing their service identity card, will be given a discount on their purchase by the retailer. Is that too much to hope for or expect in this country? Giving discounts to 200,000 service personnel would make little difference to bottom lines and have a minimum impact on shareholder dividends or value, yet I can think of no more practical and welcome way to show national appreciation for all that our forces are doing. Every little helps, it is said. Will any retailer agree to offer discounts, or even extra points on loyalty cards, to our serving personnel to show that they are appreciated? I commend this idea to your Lordships.